Coronavirus crisis in aviation - air freight could benefit

The coronavirus is affecting the global economy and threatens to plunge the economy into a tangible crisis. But while many industries have to adjust to falling sales figures and losses, the restrictions on the movement of goods could even have a positive effect on the air freight industry. Prof. Dr. Arne Schulke is the department head for transport and logistics at the IUBH and reports on the effects of the coronavirus on aviation.

The novel coronavirus is currently keeping the world in suspense. How is the coronavirus affecting aviation?

The effects of the virus on passenger traffic are already very negative, as the route cancellations by many airlines to and from Asia show. The scope is already strongly reminiscent of the SARS epidemic of 2003 when at the worst possible time the number of passengers fell globally by up to 35%.

What outcomes could this have for the flight business?

Airlines around the world can expect high losses. 2020 could be the worst economic year since the financial crisis - so airlines can expect high losses. If the number of passengers was to fall by 13 percent in 2020, as the International Air Transport Association IATA expects, this would mean the industry's first year of losses since 2009.

How does the virus affect the movement of goods?

The security precautions against the coronavirus in Asia and especially in China have led to a breakdown in road and port logistics. This has a massive impact on shipping traffic worldwide.

... why do companies switch to air freight?

Correct, because companies are trying to relieve these blocked supply routes with air freight. The demand for air freight is currently increasing rapidly. Of course, the airlines benefit from this again.

So in the end, could the airfreight industry even benefit from the current crisis?

The effects are opposite here. The demand for air freight is increasing, but around 50 percent of all air freight is not transported by pure freight airlines, but by passenger aircraft. This means that every passenger flight canceled due to the coronavirus reduces these capacities again.

Assuming current developments continue - which actors would benefit from this in 2020?

The beneficiaries of the current crisis are cargo airlines, mixed carriers, and charter airlines. 2020 could be a record year for them. for more information click here